INDIANAPOLIS — Before Donald J. Trump burnished his national credentials as a reality TV star, he promoted himself as a builder, from constructing towers in Manhattan and Chicago to building golf courses worldwide. Now in his second term as president, Trump’s policies have walloped builders in the housing sector.
This comes as “affordability” has risen to the top issue in the Nov. 3 midterm elections. A Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted Aug. 28-31 revealed that 47% of registered voters say the cost of living would be the single most important factor in deciding their 2026 midterm vote. Cost of living issues remain a relatively weak spot for the president, with 71% disapproving and 22% approving.
Trump’s tariffs introduced in April 2025 have increased the cost of building materials by 40% since December 2020. According to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), data from the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index estimated it now costs $10,900 more to build a home. More than 60% of builders surveyed by NAHB have reported seeing higher costs due to tariffs.
Look no further than Home Depot, whose stock price is down 13.44% over the past month, 11.5% year to date and 18.25% over the trailing year, according to Yahoo Finance. Lowe’s Companies Inc. is trading at $188.38, down significantly from its early 2026 peak of $284.26.
“Additionally, numerous raw materials and components, ranging from steel and aluminum to home appliances, are sourced from nations across the globe that are subject to Trump’s latest tariffs,” the NAHB analysis continued. “These tariffs are projected to raise the cost of imported construction materials by billions of dollars.”
According to the consulting firm Wood, Smith, Henning & Berman, “Steel and aluminum are essential in construction for framing, beams, rebar, siding, and roofing. The new tariffs will significantly increase the cost of these materials, directly impacting commercial and residential projects. Developers and general contractors will likely pass these increased costs on to their own clients.”
According to Housing Wire, ICE arrests surged to 49,571 in July, prompting builders in several states to report job site disruptions and tighter labor. “Impacts are localized, with some markets seeing 25% to 50% increases in framing costs and delayed closings that pressure margins,” Housing Wire reported.
The NAHB’s analysis of 2024 U.S. Census data revealed 57% of drywall/ceiling installers were immigrants; 56% of plasterers/stucco masons; 53% of roofers and painters; and 51% of flooring installers.
Mortgage rates are rising. According to Freddie Mac, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 7.03% on Sept. 24, up from 6.95% last week. A year ago it averaged 6.3%. Analysis from Rocket Mortgage cited “rates rising sharply after geopolitical conflicts (such as the fallout from the conflict with Iran starting in late February) disrupted oil markets, drove up inflation fears, and pushed 10-year Treasury yields higher.”
On June 25, Trump left congressional Republicans slack-jawed when he abruptly canceled a White House signing ceremony for a bipartisan housing bill — the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act — instead allowing it to become law after 10 days. It passed the House 358-32 (with the Indiana House delegation voting yea, except for Rep. Marlin Stutzman, who didn’t vote) and the Senate 85-5, with Sen. Jim Banks voting yea and Sen. Todd Young voting no (saying it lacked provisions to address burdensome local zoning laws).
Shortly before 10 a.m. on June 25, Trump posted on Truth Social that the bill was “of minor importance” and characterized it as a “big yawn.”
The Wall Street Journal reported, “The move stunned Republican lawmakers, who learned of the decision on social media along with the rest of the country. Some were confounded Trump would undercut a bipartisan bill that he urged Congress to pass, and that could have helped Republicans make the case that they were addressing Americans’ affordability concerns.”
Through all the political and policy turmoil, Indiana’s housing market is outperforming the U.S. According to the National Association of Realtors, the number of existing homes sold in 2025 was at the lowest level since 1995, three decades earlier, Forbes reported.
Matt Kinghorn, senior demographer for Indiana Business Research Center at Indiana University, observed, “While several key indicators moved in the right direction in 2025, steep costs and scant supply continued to weigh on Hoosier housing markets.
Kinghorn continued, “Indiana will also see an uptick in existing home sales in 2025, but the state is on track to post fewer than 80,000 existing home sales for the third consecutive year. For context, Indiana averaged roughly 94,200 existing home sales per year between 2017 and 2022.”
But if national trends persist — including tariffs against top Indiana trading partners Canada and Mexico — such upticks may vanish.
Kinghorn noted that younger Hoosiers are being priced out of the market. “Here in Indiana, a recent decline in the homeownership rate for the population between the ages of 25 and 44 shows that many of the state’s young adults are also falling behind in this regard,” he explained.
The University of Michigan’s monthly consumer sentiment survey revealed that Americans feel worse about the economy than they did during the COVID-19 pandemic and the 2008 financial crisis. It declined 15% from January 2026 and is down 12.7% since September 2025.
When it comes to housing, can you say “affordability”? Don’t be surprised if people vote that way between now and Nov. 3.
Brian A. Howey is an opinion columnist for State Affairs Indiana and the founder of Howey Politics Indiana. His writing offers analysis and opinion shaped by decades of experience covering Indiana politics. Email him at howey@stateaffairs.com.
