After a bleak autumn marked by slumping commodity prices and the trade dispute with China, the tide was beginning to turn for farmers this year.
Across the country, farmers were optimistic that demand would return for their products and Chinese markets would re-open. They intended to plant more corn and soybeans than last year.
Then came the coronavirus.
“After last year, farmers may now wonder if we will ever have a normal year again. Isn’t everyone?” said Chad Cass, regional director for Ceres Solutions, a farmer-owned cooperative based in Crawfordsville.
Ag producers across the country fear the global pandemic could hurt profits and prolong the trade standoff.
“But farmers are extremely resilient and resourceful,” Cass said. “They have a critical job in an essential industry, and while prices are obviously down, we remain optimistic.”
The mood swing is reflected in Purdue University’s latest Ag Economy Barometer. After February’s highest-ever reading, the index saw its largest one-month drop in March.
“Declines in agricultural commodity prices and concerns about the coronavirus crisis impact on the U.S. economy and agriculture sector weighed heavily on farmer sentiment in March,” Purdue ag economists Jim Mintert and Michael Langemeier wrote in the report.
Nearly three-quarters of farmers said they were “fairly” or “very” worried about the impact of the virus on profits. Four-in-ten expected a worse year for the bottom line compared to 2019.
Confidence also dropped over resolving the trade situation. The barometer is based on a monthly survey of 400 U.S. ag producers in conjunction with global markets company CME Group.
While the survey found higher expectations of government payments for this year’s crops, Cass said farmers remain hopeful the economy will recover.
But as the growing season continues, “the need for assistance would arise if we don’t see a rebound in demand and prices,” Cass added.
