Wabash College professor Shamira Gelbman’s political science students wrapped up their series on polling on Nov. 15, presenting their findings from the exit poll they conducted near three Montgomery County voting centers on election day. This educational exit poll was supported by a grant from Community-Engaged Alliance, an organization that supports Indiana colleges and universities in their efforts to promote community engagement.
The students designed their own poll with 21 questions on voting behaviors, attitudes about a variety of policy issues, and demographics. With 333 respondents — “about one out of four” of the voters whom students approached — students shared insights on both the results and the care it takes to run an objective, valid poll.
Exit polls provide a snapshot of voter sentiment immediately after casting their ballots, and the class’s 2024 effort in Montgomery County yielded some predictable and some fascinating insights. Conducted near three vote centers — North Montgomery High School, the 4-H Building and Rock Point Church — the poll captured responses from 333 voters. With a near-equal gender split, a mix of ages, and varying education levels, the data mirrored Montgomery County’s demographic profile, though it slightly skewed toward more highly educated participants.
KEY FINDINGS
Candidate Support and Demographic Trends
To no one’s surprise, Donald Trump dominated the presidential vote in our poll. These results aligned with broader voting patterns in Indiana, and in the county, where 73% voted for Trump and 25% voted for Harris. Education emerged as a significant factor: Trump held a strong lead among voters with lower education levels, while higher-educated voters showed more balance, with Trump and Harris nearly splitting the vote (53 to 49). Gender also played a role, with women being statistically significantly more likely to vote for Harris (37%) compared to men (17%).
Voter Consistency and Party Loyalty
The class examined shifts between the 2020 and 2024 elections. While most 2020 voters stayed consistent in their presidential vote, 5% of those who voted for Trump in 2020 did not vote for him again in 2024 and 11% of those who voted for Democratic candidate Joe Biden in 2020 voted for candidates other than Kamala Harris this year. This trend underscores Trump’s solid base and this year’s Biden voters’ greater likelihood of changing preferences. Party loyalty was also pronounced, with only 6% of Republicans and 2% of Democrats crossing party lines in their presidential vote choice.
However, Trump voters were more likely to split their ticket. In general, women were more likely to split ticket votes, with 26 women and only 14 men having split tickets. 13 people voted for both Trump (R-president) and Jennifer McCormick (D-governor), 22 voted for Trump, then chose Rainwater (L-governor). Only 3 Harris voters reported choosing Braun (R-governor); 4 other Harris voters selected Rainwater.
Policy Motivations and Issue Salience
Key motivators differed sharply by voter demographics. For about half of Harris voters, abortion was the most predominant concern. A quarter of women voters said it influenced their vote. Interestingly, across all ages, more people disapproved of overturning Roe vs. Wade than approved (about 38-40% disapproved compared to 26-35% approval rates for almost all age groups except those aged 66+, who approved at about 47%.)
Conversely, Trump voters prioritized the economy and immigration. Education influenced views on economic issues, with lower-educated voters expressing greater concern about the economy.
The students also asked questions about voters’ views on mail-in voting, foreign policy, and immigration. The mail-in ballot question revealed a stark divide: Trump supporters overwhelmingly opposed it, while Harris voters supported it. Students found that result fascinating, saying that after mail-in ballots facilitated voting during the pandemic, they thought more people would see it as a useful option for such occasions.
The students acknowledged that their question “Would you support further involvement by the United States in the Israel/Palestine conflict?” may have been poorly worded. There were no clear patterns in the responses to this question and more than 30% of those who answered it said they were neutral or unsure about their opinion on the matter. The lack of clear trends may also highlight the complexity of capturing nuanced foreign policy views in localized polls.
Immigration emerged as a divisive issue, with Trump voters favoring stricter border enforcement and Harris voters focusing on pathways to citizenship and family separation.
Creating polls
The class members reflected on what they learned about creating polls, choosing questions, and evaluating wording to avoid being leading or appearing to side with one civic group or another. Another concern was which questions to include or exclude in order to gain the information for their poll’s purpose without causing people to quit answering questions. They eliminated questions about marital status and income. They didn’t want people to self-select out of the poll midway through because they didn’t know their tax bracket, and didn’t want to disclose income or a recent divorce.
The students noted that 333 respondents is a somewhat small sample size, considering that nearly 17,000 ballots were cast in the county. The poll’s margin of error is ±5.3 percentage points. While the poll did capture the county’s presidential vote within this margin of error, caution is needed in attributing the results about voters’ attitudes to the county population as a whole.
In addition, about 40% of the county voted early, which may have skewed the poll results since they did not conduct exit polls for early voters. They also did not run their poll for the entirety of polling hours on election day, starting only at 10 a.m. Those voting earlier in the morning would not have had a chance to participate in the exit poll.
Reflections
Asked what they would do differently, students said they’d reword the foreign policy question or eliminate it since that did not appear to be a big factor in the national outcomes. Some said they’d explore the motivations of two key demographics, black men who mostly voted for Harris, and white women, a majority of whom voted for Trump.
This exit poll reflects Montgomery County’s alignment with state and national trends, offering a compelling lens into the 2024 electoral landscape.
The League of Women Voters, a non-partisan, multi-issue organization encourages informed and active participation in government, works to increase public understanding of major policy issues and influences public policy through education and advocacy. All men and women are invited to join the LWV where hands-on work to safeguard democracy leads to civic improvement. For information, visit the website www.lwvmontcoin.org or the League of Women Voters of Montgomery County, IN Facebook page.
