We live in a hypothetical world of “perhaps this” or “perhaps that.” Nothing is sure, certain, and solid.
Scientists base research on hypothesis and prediction. They use a sample to test a hypothesis about a larger group. They test to see whether the results are unlikely to occur by chance (usually less that 5%). Replication of the same statistically significant results across several experiments reduces the probability that the overall pattern of results is due to chance.
Human behavior is less predictable than nature. Nevertheless, we have been bombarded with predictions regarding the recent election based on surveys. Error is possible because surveys use a sample, not a whole population. Surveys are dependent upon how well the sample represents the test population. Most predictions of recent election results were extensively wrong.
Now the same people tell us why so many election surveys were wrong, and then predict what various leaders, individuals, and groups will do in the future. Many errors are based on stereotyped group identities that seem endemic to surveys, whereas each person — including you — is an unpredictable minority of one.
A colleague said: “If a scientist willfully falsifies data to benefit a company, product, politician, funding, or fame, he is not just a bad scientist, he is no scientist at all.”
Some commentators know less than you do about certain economic, political, and social issues. They create a “Yes, but” rhetoric where everything is possible, and nothing is sure. Many influencers and celebrities fabricate their own hypothetical worlds from personal biases, wish lists, desire for attention, and ego satisfaction. They state emphatically that something “might,” “maybe,” “appears likely” or “perhaps might occur.” Predictions wobble, allowing frauds an out to cover their nakedness. Nevertheless, we provide lecterns, megaphones, and media outlets for some influencers who are frauds. Their many hypothetical worlds implant broken models of reality. Astute observers of Quantum Artificial Intelligence warn, “You ain’t seen nothing yet!”
We cannot conduct our daily lives in hypothetical worlds. We must engage in concrete actions, take reasonable positions, invest ourselves in something. Only so can we be ourselves and not just a chameleon robot.
We must take responsibility. We humans are created with the ability to think and reason (1) to make decisions about what to believe as true and (2) to decide what is good to do (volition). No other creature has the level of ability that most humans have. Therefore, we should be responsible and think and act as free human beings and not as slaves of some other individual or group.
Examine responsibly the science regarding issues about the topics and potential activities facing you! Accept those results of reputable scientists instead of manipulated and misleading opinions shouted by the ignorant or scheming frauds! Learn from your experience and from examination of the experience of others! An old saying is that a wise person learns from other people’s mistakes; a smart person learns from his own mistakes; an ignorant person does not learn from either.
Unite to support initiatives and organizations that permit you freedom to learn and that endeavor to present a reasonable message about what is true to believe and proclaims a constructive message about what is good to do!
Try to be a faithful guide and honorable ancestor for others by seeking to follow what light you have toward the true and the good! That might lead us toward more light, and not into darkness. We hope to find beauty along with truth and goodness.
Raymond Brady Williams, Crawfordsville, LaFollette Distinguished Professor in the Humanities emeritus, contributed this guest column.
