INDIANAPOLIS — The year 2024 will go down in history books as a sensational one politically. For just the second time in history, America is sending a former president back to the White House. Indiana elected its 52nd white male governor.
We watched a rematch take shape between President Joe Biden and former president Donald J. Trump. The former was forced off the Democratic ticket in July following a disastrous June debate and persistent demonstrations of age-induced mental decline. The latter also exhibited cognitive decline and survived two assassination attempts. Trump plied voters with a dystopian view (America is the world’s “garbage can”) while promising “retribution” to rivals while exploiting a gaping gender gap, with 55% of the men supporting him. He killed a bipartisan immigration deal in January, then used it to turn out his male voters in November.
In Indiana, Trump won 59% of the vote after former Indiana governor and vice president Mike Pence and U.S. Sen. Todd Young opposed his election (the Indiana GOP congressional delegation running in 2024 all supported him). Pence cited Trump’s collision with the U.S. Constitution; Young for failing to support Ukraine.
In most rural counties, Trump carried between 65% and 75% of the vote, despite his threats of further tariffs like the ones during his first term that devastated international markets for American grain and livestock.
In Indiana’s auto-making counties, Trump won overwhelming support despite UAW President Shawn Fain (a Kokomo native) calling him a “scab” while President Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris walked the union’s strike lines in 2023.
Allen County, home of the sprawling Fort Wayne General Motors truck plant, backed Trump over Harris 58.6%-39.7%. In Howard County, home to the Stellantis/Chrysler complex as well as Haynes International and GM’s Kokomo Operations, Trump won with 66.6%, while in neighboring Tipton County (home to Stellantis Transmission), he won with 74.5%. In the GM counties of Lawrence (Bedford Casting and GM Power train) and Grant (Fisher Body in Marion), Trump won with 74.7% and 70%, respectively. In St. Joseph County, home to AM General at Mishawaka, Trump topped Harris 50%-48.5%.
Trump’s second term will likely have a turbulent impact on the volatile auto industry. He says he will end Biden’s electric vehicle tax credits which could change the dynamics of billion dollar battery plants under construction in New Carlisle and Terre Haute. He is opposing the proposed merger of U.S. Steel and Nippon Steel (so is President Biden).
According to CNN exit poll data, Trump won over 46% of voters aged 18 to 44, 50% of those making less than $50,000 and 56% of those with no college degree. Trump won 45% of union households. He cut into historic Democratic dominance of female, Black and Latino male voters, according to CNN exit polling. Trump won 13% of Black voters, 46% of Latinos, 39% of Asians and 57% of white voters.
According to Bob Woodward’s book “War,” “There had been more than six million illegal crossings at the southern border since [President Joe] Biden took office, one of the greatest levels of human displacement in history. Nearly 80% of Americans and 73% of Democrats said they disapproved of the Biden administration’s handling of the U.S.-Mexican border.
With climate change and related political instability, this crisis will only worsen in the coming years.
Vice President Harris faced historic headwinds. Of the 46 presidencies, only 15 veeps made it to the promised land, and four of them — Andrew Johnson, Chester A. Arthur, Theodore Roosevelt and Lyndon B. Johnson — did so after presidential assassinations. Five others — John Tyler, Millard Fillmore, Calvin Coolidge, Harry S. Truman and Gerald Ford — ascended to the White House after a president died or resigned.
Only four sitting vice presidents have been elected president: John Adams in 1796, Thomas Jefferson in 1800, Martin Van Buren in 1836 and George H. W. Bush in 1988. Two former vice presidents — Richard Nixon in 1968 and Joe Biden in 2020 — won the presidency after sitting out an election cycle.
For Democrats, the veep track hardly ever works in modern times, as Humphrey, Walter Mondale and Al Gore can attest after losing presidential campaigns. The Democratic Party passed on elevating Vice Presidents Adlai Stevenson, Thomas Marshall (a former Indiana governor), John Nance Garner, Henry Wallace and Alben Barkley.
As for Gov.-elect Mike Braun, he won a six-way Republican primary last May, then defeated Democrat Jennifer McCormick by 14% in November.
When he takes office in January, his first major initiative will be “to reduce the tax burden” on homeowners by capping property tax increases at 2% to 3%, extend targeted relief to retirees, families, and low-income Hoosiers.
As Gov. Pence learned in 2013 when he took aim at income taxes, General Assembly Republicans will have a huge say in what actually passes. Key to this will be the potential impacts on local governments, which could lose $1 billion in revenue.
Since 2012, Hoosier Republicans have held supermajority status in both the Indiana House and Senate. This means that they can pass legislation without Democrats even showing up. This is an unprecedented grip on power, coming as Braun begins the sixth consecutive GOP governorship, also a record.
Brian A. Howey is a senior writer for Howey Politics Indiana and State Affairs.Find Howey on X @hwypol.