INDIANAPOLIS — One of my most memorable conversations was in February 2006 when Greg Walker called me right before the candidate filing deadline. He was considering a primary challenge to powerful Senate President Pro Tem Robert Garton.
My advice was to run as a community service to air out the issues. Incumbents should be challenged. You probably won’t win, I explained to Walker, but it would be a good exercise in civics.
Walker bought a 1970 Plymouth Valiant for $500 (the model year when Garton was first elected) and received endorsements from Right to Life and Right to Work organizations. Unfolding around him was an unpopular Middle East war that fueled an anti-incumbency movement. When the dust settled on primary election night, Walker had pulled off one of the biggest upsets in Hoosier history. That November, three Indiana Republican congressmen had lost, and Democrats retook the Indiana House majority.
The lesson here is this: You throw your hat into the ring and hope that events around you go your way.
Last week, Sen. Walker’s primary challenger — state Rep. Michelle Davis — along with five other Indiana Republicans, met with President Donald J. Trump, U.S. Sen. Jim Banks and U.S. Rep. Erin Houchin at the White House. They have become part of Trump’s retribution campaign aimed at Republicans who voted against mid-decade redistricting, which was defeated in the Indiana Senate.
There is Vigo County Councilwoman Brenda Wilson, who is challenging Sen. Greg Goode of Terre Haute; Fountain County Republican Chair Paula Copenhaver against Sen. Spencer Deery of West Lafayette; Tipton County Commissioner Tracey Powell facing Sen. Jim Buck of Kokomo; and Bluffton Council member Blake Fiechter against Sen. Travis Holdman of Markle.
Powell was star-struck. “Walking into the Oval Office and sitting down with President Trump was one of the greatest honors of my life,” Powell said.
Three key components lead to upsets: money, political environment, and candidate advocacy.
On the money front, in the lone legislator head-to-head, Davis raised $53,571, spent $35,931 and had a year-end balance of $32,717. Walker raised $17,057, spent $6,535 and had a balance of $10,521.
The other financially competitive race is Buck’s, who began the cycle with $35,000, raised $25,667, spent $20,665 and ended with a balance of $40,201. Powell will be competitive on the money front, having raised $38,694, spent $14,918 and ended with $23,776. Both Walker and Buck had originally planned to retire before changing their minds.
The other three challenger races are currently lopsided on the fiscal front. The keyword there is “currently.”
But large pools of money are expected to be deployed over the next two months.
The Indiana Senate Majority Campaign Committee reported $2.3 million in cash on hand at the end of 2025, having raised $1.28 million for the year. It raised close to $800,000 in the fourth quarter last year as Trump threatened retribution.
Senate President Pro Tem Rodric Bray’s campaign committee had $1.5 million, giving him control of at least $3.3 million to spend on behalf of his caucus’s incumbents. Senate Appropriations Chair Ryan Mishler has a cash balance of $433,506. Adding in Sen. Holdman’s $437,874, Senate leadership has close to $4.5 million in reserves to help any vulnerable incumbent.
What about the challengers?
Trump’s MAGA Inc. super PAC raised $305 million since the 2024 election, according to the Brennan Center for Justice. Americans for Prosperity, part of the Koch network, spent roughly $138 million on elections in 2024, according to OpenSecrets and has endorsed several Senate challengers.
Based on those resources, the Indiana Republican Senate challengers should have ample campaign funds.
Then there is the notion of Trump campaigning in Indiana on behalf of these challengers. In a hostile environment for Republicans in 2018, Trump made multiple appearances in the state on behalf of Gov. Mike Braun, who went on to upset Democratic U.S. Sen. Joe Donnelly.
The Trump brand in Indiana has been powerful.
But how will the Trump brand fare if the war he picked against Iran produces oil shocks? Iran has now shut down the Strait of Hormuz, using cheap drones and naval mines to attack three oil tankers as of Wednesday. Trump seems to have missed the central lesson that whacked Russia’s Vladimir Putin in Ukraine, which is that drone warfare is asymmetrical and is changing ... everything.
U.S. Sen. Jim Banks understands the risks, telling WTWO-TV on Tuesday, “I’m concerned about gas prices going up. … I hope it’s a very, very temporary blip. If they get higher, we need to figure out a way to provide relief to Americans who are taking it on the chin.”
Journalist David Drucker of The Dispatch said on MS NOW’s “Morning Joe” on Wednesday, “Republicans know affordability isn’t a hoax. Now it’s gas prices.” But he notes that Trump is countering a potential oil shock by “changing voting laws” to “nationalize elections.”
That is interesting from an Indiana angle on a couple of fronts. Trump’s attempt to “nationalize” Indiana’s congressional maps has set this retribution campaign in motion in places like Markle, Bluffton, West Lafayette, Columbus, Kokomo and Tipton.
How oil shocks play and perhaps, change perception of the Trump brand could determine how this Indiana GOP civil war plays out.
Brian Howey is an opinion columnist for State Affairs Indiana and the founder of Howey Politics Indiana. His writing offers analysis and opinion shaped by decades of experience covering Indiana politics. Email him at howey@stateaffairs.com.
