At the forefront of the coronavirus (COVID-19) health crisis, Dr. Scott Douglas has been an integral part of health and safety decisions made in Montgomery County since the pandemic arrived.
Douglas, a member of the Crawfordsville Rotary Club, was asked to present on the virus during a meeting Wednesday by Crawfordsville club president Charlie Cochrane.
Douglas warned infection rates of COVID-19, as with influenza, will increase during winter months as the community moves indoors where the virus can spread “like wildfire.”
Masks and social distancing, he said, remain the best methods of combating the spread of COVID-19.
“Distance, distance distance; masks, masks, masks — that’s my message,” Douglas said. “And if you get symptoms, contact your (healthcare) provider and ask for a test. That’s one of our only tools.”
Douglas presented examples of how easily the virus can still spread at restaurants and in the workplace where social distancing is observed. He also cited a spring outbreak at a Crawfordsville factory, and how even isolated events can affect an entire region.
“Every year in Montgomery County, our normal fatalities number somewhere around 330,” he said. “If COVID infected 60 percent of our population, with a fatality rate of 6.6 percent, that would lead to 1,300 deaths. So the number of deaths will be quadrupled if we allow this to get out of control.”
Controversy surrounding the use of facial coverings also came into focus. Douglas said a better understanding of the virus and how it spreads may change the minds of those resisting the safety measure.
“This is a completely settled issue in medical facilities around the world ... masks have been used in medicine for over 100 years,” he said. “Putting something in front that captures that moisture helps to limit the amount of virus that’s spewed into the room.
“You may have all seen various Facebook memes where folks are saying, ‘Well, the size of a viral particle is so small that it would get through a mask without any problem,’” Douglas continued. “Unfortunately, what they don’t quite understand is we’re not spewing individual viral particles — this is all part of the larger respiratory droplets that get spewed out of our mouths that get caught in the mask.”
While some particles may be small enough to escape out the sides, facial coverings still work and remain the front-line defense in combating the illness, he said.
“Folks trying to make the claim that masks don’t work, and therefore don’t intend to wear one, are misguided,” he said.
Transmission between strangers is uncommon, he said, and studies show even close contact between passersby — such as in an elevator — carry a low risk of transmission.
It’s spending time with other individuals, like friends and family, when the virus spreads the most.
“I think that’s because we feel comfortable about our friends and family, and we think to ourselves,’ Well, surely they’re safe. They won’t make us sick,’” he said, “But that’s where the transmissions are occurring.”
Another piece of information that individuals “don’t quite have a handle on,” he said, is the chance of contraction.
“What’s the chance that I might be exposed to somebody with COVID,” he asked. “If you’re in a gathering of 100 people, statistically there’s a 56-percent chance that one person in that group has COVID and is infectious. So if you’re gathering in church and not wearing masks and not socially distance, there’s a 50-percent chance that one of you has the infection and can transmit.”
Upcoming fall concert and food festivals organized by the Rotary Club each year have been canceled, appealing to Douglas.
However, other festivals and events around the county are still set to take place.
“For example, Waynetown is going to have a fish fry the second week of September outdoors, and they expect somewhere between 1,000-2,000 people,” he said. “Based on the prevalence of COVID, we can predict ... there will be 12 people who have the infection at the event.”
Organizers of such events are required to submit a health and safety plan to their local health department. The Ironman National held over the weekend serves as a good example of how an event should take place during the pandemic, he said.
“Those are the only tools we have — masks and distance. If we want to allow people to gather, they have to use those tools,” Douglas said. “Some folks resent that or don’t agree, but it’s probably for most just a case of not quite understanding what the real risk is. We have to do these things to keep the amount of infection down.
“That means adults have to behave; if you’re having family and friends over for a cookout, you still have to maintain that social distancing,” he continued. “Just because they’re your friends doesn’t mean they’re any safer than anybody else.”
Indiana’s novel coronavirus dashboard shows nearly 1.5 million tests administered since Feb. 26, with more than 95,000 cases confirmed.
