INDIANAPOLIS — Huston, we have a problem.
From Fishers to Charlestown, that could have been the distress signal blaring across Indiana Republican ranks on election night — a NASA-style call for help slathered in delicious hubris.
House Speaker Todd Huston became the third such Statehouse titan to lose reelection since 1986, succumbing to 29-year-old Democrat Lauren Cole, 52%-48%. Incoming Senate President Pro Tem Chris Garten is surviving by a thread of 297 votes at this writing.
Between Huston’s upset and Garten’s still-uncertain survival, Republicans lost 16 seats in the House and at least five in the Senate.
Never in the modern era of General Assembly politics have two chamber leaders faced simultaneous extinction. And the extent of this debacle is only just beginning to sink in.
After the May primary circular firing squad that ended the Senate careers of Dan Dernulc and Linda Rogers, their not-ready-for-primetime replacements faltered: Trevor De Vries kicked away Senate District 1 to Democrat Scott Houldieson, and Democrat Gabrianna Gratzol led Brian Schmutzler 51%-49% (with 97% of precincts reporting). Two other retribution campaign nominees — Tracey Powell and Michelle Davis — won by much narrower margins than expected.
This Republican fratricide ends the seven-cycle GOP supermajority era. Republicans now have a 54-46 House margin (down from 70-30) and 25-15 in the Senate (if Garten pulls out a tormented victory).
This was a Republican bloodbath inspired by President Donald J. Trump and exacerbated by his retribution campaign that cost seven Senate incumbents their seats in May.
Another House seat — HD 72, vacated by Rep. Ed Clere after he was ostracized by MAGA Republicans — now has Democrat Michele Henry leading Darrell Neeley 52%-48% with 82% of precincts reporting.
The historical soundbite in December came from Garten, who advocated for new congressional maps. In fiery fashion on Dec. 11, Garten exhorted, “Some will say these maps are political. Let me be clear. You’re damn right they are! If drawing new maps means picking up two seats for the Republican Party … then I’ll draw that map every single day and twice on Sunday.
“We are not here to be arbiters of decline,” Garten continued. “We’re here to be active agents of American greatness.”
But Trump’s mid-decade reapportionment scheme proved the antithesis of “American greatness.” It became a fool’s errand. Re-gerrymandered maps designed to produce about a dozen GOP seats nationally backfired, as Republicans lost four such districts in Texas, three in Florida, one in Alabama, and another in North Carolina.
The new map scheme roiled Indiana politics.
U.S. Rep. Victoria Spartz lost to Democrat J.D. Ford. If the re-engineered Indiana map that Huston steered through the House and Garten unsuccessfully advocated in the Senate in December had become a reality, the carnage in the Indiana GOP could have been far greater: U.S. Reps. Marlin Stutzman (a 55%-45% winner), Rudy Yakym (51%-46%), Jim Baird (54%-46%), Jefferson Shreve (55%-45%), Mark Messmer (55%-45%) and Erin Houchin (54%-43%) spent part of election night sweating out the blue tsunami against underfunded Democratic challengers.
Democratic Indianapolis Councilor Nick Roberts analyzed Tuesday’s results and his map showed Democrats winning eight of nine seats (all but Houchin’s 9th CD).
Gov. Mike Braun, Lt. Gov. Micah Beckwith and U.S. Sen. Jim Banks fully embraced and funded Trump’s reapportionment scheme, producing what I called the “Indiana Republican civil war.” It cost the GOP $15 million.
After kicking out Republicans like Clere, next on the list was current Senate President Pro Tem Rodric Bray. This summer, Bray decided to step down from leadership, fearing any attempt to stay at the helm would end the careers of more of his allies.
Garten quickly attempted to ascend.
Garten has become a spectacle, for all the wrong reasons. Following the Dec. 11 map rejection by a 31-19 Senate vote, he shared a Yuletide social media post featuring AI-generated images of him assaulting Santa Claus in front of the Statehouse.
After assuming the unofficial Senate helm in August, he presided over an election cycle that saw the Senate Majority Caucus bleed away five seats. In his own race against an obscure Democrat named Nick Marshall, Garten posted $1.52 million in receipts and had $955,000 in cash on hand in mid-October.
And Marshall’s haul? He had a paltry $13,951 in receipts and a mid-October cash balance of $4,634, just a fraction of what it would take to buy one of Jamey Noel’s auctioned cars.
Braun won an intense 2018 Senate primary against Todd Rokita and Luke Messer, in part by carrying around cardboard cutouts of his two opponents. The punchline of one of Braun’s final TV ads showed him looking at Rokita, quipping, “You’re being quiet.”
In the wake of this midterm election debacle, the silence from Braun, Beckwith and Banks is deafening. Banks tried to forge himself as the Indiana Republican kingmaker while emphatically embracing Trump and all things MAGA.
Braun, expected to announce his reelection bid later this month, enters the 2028 cycle historically unpopular, with a loose-cannon lieutenant governor, while his 2025 property tax reforms are decimating city budgets (likely a factor in Huston’s and Garten’s election-night travails).
As Hoosier Republicans ponder a comeback, they might take a cue from Indianapolis Colts owner Carlie Irsay-Gordon, who has initiated a tear-down rebuild.
Brian A. Howey is an opinion columnist for State Affairs Indiana and the founder of Howey Politics Indiana. His writing offers analysis and opinion shaped by decades of experience covering Indiana politics. Email him at howey@stateaffairs.com.
