INDIANAPOLIS — What Hoosier voters — specifically Republicans — have witnessed over the past eight weeks has been an unprecedented roiling of a retribution campaign launched by President Donald J. Trump into seven Indiana Senate primaries.
It has dumped a deluge of gubernatorial-level funds — much of it dark money — into rural and small-town Senate districts that have never experienced such a torrent of negativity.
This all came about after the Indiana Senate’s 31-19 vote on Dec. 11, rejecting Trump’s scheme for mid-decade congressional reapportionment. It ignited what I call the “Republican civil war” in our state. The president of the United States assisted in recruiting and endorsed candidates to challenge Sens. Dan Dernulc of Highland, Linda Rogers of Granger, Jim Buck of Kokomo, Spencer Deery of West Lafayette, Greg Goode of Terre Haute, Travis Holdman of Markle and Greg Walker of Columbus.
These incumbents, all saying they acted on an expressed majority of their constituent sentiments who decried external forces invading their maps, now await the voter verdict next Tuesday.
These challengers who anted up to this scheme did so before Trump launched a war against Iran, before gas and diesel fuel prices, along with fertilizer, spiked after the Strait of Hormuz was blocked and before he posted an image of himself as a Christ-like figure healing a man. This is before he threatened to wipe out Iran’s “civilization” on Easter Sunday.
The results on May 5 will likely have profound reverberations for Indiana’s dominant political party for years to come.
The retribution campaign has resulted in an estimated $15 million spent, spates of political porn-style broadcast TV and digital ads, and torrents of mailbox-clogging glossy flyers. It has prompted the sitting Republican governor, the lieutenant governor and a freshman U.S. senator to target their own party’s senators, something that hadn’t occurred in modern Indiana politics.
Former Republican House Speaker Pro Tem Jeff Espich has denounced this fratricidal breach. In an ad published in The Bluffton News-Banner, Espich expressed outrage at the race between Holdman and Bluffton Common Council member Blake Fiechter.
“The East Coast outside influences in this Senatorial campaign have created a terribly negative atmosphere in Wells County,” Espich says in his display advertisement. “Their secret effort distresses me deeply. This type of negative campaign has not happened here before and should be rejected now.
“To my knowledge, both candidates are good Americans,” Espich says of Holdman and Fiechter. “Neither should have distortions, mis-characterizations, and half-truths, spread about them. Despoiling a person’s life, work, and character has no place in Wells County politics. For instance, is anyone dumb enough to believe that Senator Travis Holdman ‘sold us out to China’. This anti-Holdman campaign statement is horrible, hurtful, and false. A State Senator couldn’t sell us out, to anyone, if they wanted.”
As for the establishment money, the Senate Majority Campaign Committee made late-April infusions into the campaigns of Deery ($100,000), Goode ($45,000 this week), Rogers ($37,000 for mailers) and Walker ($90,000 since April 16). Senate President Pro Tem Rodric Bray’s campaign committee made late $10,000 donations to Rogers and Walker and another $2,000 to Dernulc. Sen. Ryan Mishler , R-Mishawaka, gave $10,000 to Walker and $5,000 to Buck. Former Lt. Gov. John Mutz gave $5,000 to Walker and $2,000 to Holdman. Indiana Farm Bureau gave $1,000 to Buck and Holdman, signaling vital rural support.
There are certain time-honored telltales. While I have Buck and Walker in toss-up races (largely because they had announced retirements before the new map scheme prompted them to change their minds), both reside in the more populous Howard and Bartholomew counties, which may give them an advantage.
As for the challengers, Lt. Gov. Micah Beckwith contributed $7,000 to Fountain County Republican Chair Paula Copenhaver in her challenge to Deery. Whiteland Rep. Michelle Davis, who is challenging Walker, was endorsed by the Indiana State Police Alliance. Dr. Brian Schmutzler’s challenge to Rogers saw him loaning his campaign another $22,000 on top of the $301,000 he had loaned earlier in the cycle.
But the lion’s share of challenger funding is dark money emanating through political action committees associated with U.S. Sen. Jim Banks, Gov. Mike Braun, Turning Point USA, the White House and Club for Growth.
There is little doubt that voters are mad as hell, but the question is, will they take it out on Hoosier Senate incumbents or against the White House and the governor?
I’ve spoken with nearly a dozen GOP insiders, each describing these universal unknowns: Who will turn out, and who are they angry with? Public polling is scant, the money trails are murky, the scenario is unprecedented, while the electorate appears agitated and volatile.
I’ve been covering Indiana General Assembly races since the mid-1980s. I launched Howey Politics in 1994. I have never witnessed anything — anything — like this current GOP circular firing squad.
Or, as Espich concludes in his ad, “This election is now about more than two guys running for office. It’s really about values and who controls Indiana Legislators, Hoosier citizens or East Coast Special Interests.”
I can’t wait to write the flotsam-and-jetsam analysis after the polls close and the results are posted next Tuesday.
Brian Howey is an opinion columnist for State Affairs Indiana and the founder of Howey Politics Indiana. His writing offers analysis and opinion shaped by decades of experience covering Indiana politics. Email him at howey@stateaffairs.com.
